Projected Growth in Renewable Energy
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest report, “Renewables 2024,” projecting a significant increase of 5.5 terawatts in renewable energy capacity by 2030, with 80 percent of this growth coming from photovoltaics. China leads in this expansion, while India is expected to show the fastest growth.
Renewable Energy’s Share of Global Electricity
The IEA anticipates that renewable energy will contribute “nearly half” of global electricity generation by 2030, specifically estimating a share of 46 percent. This rapid growth indicates that many countries are surpassing their own renewable energy targets, as noted in the report, which covers around 70 nations that collectively represent 80 percent of the world’s renewable electricity capacity.
Cautious Overall Outlook
However, the overall outlook remains cautious, particularly as the forecast predicts that renewables will account for just under 20 percent of total global energy consumption by 2030. In the electricity sector, the projected total installed capacity by 2030 would be only 2.7 times that of 2022, despite the COP28 World Climate Conference setting a target for a tripling of capacity by 2023, a critical step towards achieving the IEA’s zero emissions goal for 2050.
Opportunities for Governments
The report asserts that reaching the 2030 interim target is “easily achievable” if governments seize existing short-term opportunities. This includes developing tailored action plans and enhancing collaboration with “emerging and developing countries” to improve financing conditions for these initiatives.
Anticipated Capacity Installations
Overall, the report anticipates the installation of approximately 5.5 terawatts of new renewable energy capacity globally from 2024 to 2030, with 670 gigawatts expected to be installed this year alone. In contrast, only about one-third of this capacity was added in the preceding six years (2017-2023).
Key Drivers of Growth
The current projections highlight “two key drivers: photovoltaics and China,” with 80 percent of the expected growth attributed to solar energy, which is projected to generate around 6,000 terawatt hours by 2030. Additionally, the IEA expects a notable recovery in wind power, predicting a doubling of the expansion rate compared to the limited growth seen from 2017 to 2023.
China and India: Leaders in Renewable Expansion
According to the IEA’s forecasts, China is expected to account for nearly 60 percent of the overall expansion of renewables in the electricity sector by 2030, with almost half of the world’s renewable capacity located there. The report also predicts that India will experience the highest growth rate among major economies, with a projected 350 gigawatts of expansion anticipated between 2024 and 2030, more than three times the amount added in the previous seven years.
